Ocean Model

This model prompts a myriad of questions pertaining to climate modeling and climate system dynamics.

( i ). What is the difference between the resulting temperature ( and CO₂ ) predictions if you opt to "continue the simulations" after the current year (say, 2003) or input your best estimate of 2100 CO₂ levels? Why do these differences occur?

( ii ). One of the major forcing factors in the model is ΔQ for doubling CO₂. This is derived from model results. Is this valid? Do they all agree?

( iii ). The historical rate of carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere appears to be crucial. Could we improve methods of estimating the pre-industrial atmospheric loading of the CO₂?

( iv ). The future rate of CO₂ loading is even more important. How did you establish the atmospheric CO₂ level in 2100? How sensitive is the model to the likely errors in your estimate? What are the likely errors in your estimate?

( v ). Are climate feedbacks calculable independently of an experiment or observation which retrieves ΔT₀ and ΔT_eq?

( vi ). There are important feedbacks entirely neglected by this model. In particular , as ocean temperature increases, the CO₂ which has been dissolved in the ocean is released back into the atmosphere, thus further increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels. How could this be parameterized and how important  a term would it be?

Required Readings

Hansen, J., Russell, G., Lacis, A., Fung, I., Rind, D. and Stone, P., 1985, Climate responses times: dependence on climate sensitivity and ocean mixing, Science, 229, 857-859

Wigley, T.M.L and Schlesinger, M.E., 1985, Analytical solution for the effect of increasing CO₂ on global mean temperature, Nature, 315, 649-652.

Last updated on 10/13/09 02:22 PM by Zong-Liang Yang